Does Palin Balance the Equation?

Young rising Democrat picks a warhorse veteran as partner.

Warhorse veteran picks a young rising Republican as partner.

Barack Obama's campaign has been based on the principle that sound judgment is what leads to change.  At the DNC he seemed to clarify what that means and what it might look like for the first time.  He has been quite plastered, at least on the various McCain and Republican National Committee ads that have been dominating Pennsylvania airwaves (at least in my south central region), for being the youngest and most inexperienced candidate ever; a torch McCain has borrowed heavily from the Hilary Clinton campaign.

McCain has taken the position that his experience and his "maverick" nature as a senator make him more fit to lead.  However, with his selection of former beauty queen Sarah Palin, can he continue to sell people the idea that he makes the better choice due to his experience now that he has chosen someone younger and with even less experience in Washington that his opponent?  It seems to discredit his brand quite a bit or at least it cheapens it.

I am very interested to see how McCain's brand will play out, especially after Obama basically told him that the gloves were off and that it's "go time soldier" in his DNC speech.

Here are some clear issues with the decision to select Sarah Palin, which make no mistake was a risk for McCain.

1. Palin has already been called out that she was chosen to compete for the Hilary Clinton cohort.  Bloomberg quotes her saying, "'Hillary left 18 million cracks in the highest, hardest glass ceiling in America," Palin said, referring to the votes Clinton won. 'We can shatter that glass ceiling once and for all.'"  The use of the same metaphor is telling.  That 18 Million is a market.  It's the same number of listeners of the Howard Stern Show at the time he signed with Sirius.  He got an enormous contract because of that size of a base.  Her job is to market to that market cluster to get McCain in the White House.  But is it too transparent of a move after Hilary Clinton's speech at the DNC?  You bet the Obama camp thinks so and will play that out.  How will McCain parry that blow?
2. Palin will play the Dan Quayle role and will be pigeonholed there.  Just when we thought that those "potatoe" clips were long gone, they will be back.  She is the youngest on either ticket, and clearly has the most conservative values.  If Gary Bauer applauds your conservatism, you bet that you are anti-abortion, anti-stem-cell, anti-gay marriage, and pro-evangelical.  Although I sincerely doubt she will look nearly as confused and juvenile as Quayle, McCain does not have a Reagan popularity to fall back on.
3. In Alaska she has a little street cred taking on "big oil" in the second richest oil state in the Union.  This might help, but it could backfire.  Do we really want another representative from a big oil state in the White House again?  We'll see if Obama tries that card and looks for other cracks in the "oil fighter" image Palin will bring to the ticket.
4. How will McCain answer the question of the role Palin will play in the White House?  Obama has made it clear that Biden's role is to be an advisor in his areas of expertise that in theory balance out those domestic areas of expertise that Obama himself can actually lay claim to.  To get past these three critical issues that will make or break McCain rather quickly through next week, he has to sell people on the role that Palin will play when her current role as a brand enhancement to get the product out to the young conservative and Clinton cluster, what role will she be to McCain?
5. What I think we will see more of to counter these obvious risky areas is that McCain will counter-punch the "It's more of the same" line with a visually compelling and tangible example of how it's clearly not more of the same in order to try to put that line to rest.  But will that be enough to overpower these already emergent fault-lines?

One thing is for sure, the Obama camp is already producing an advertising blitz that will try to pop holes in these issues quickly and relentlessly.  Will this gamble by McCain pay off?  I seriously have my doubts.  It will be fun to watch the chess game in this totally unexpected new world of US politics take shape.  It's clear that it's not business as usual – at least from an imaging and marketing perspective.

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